The Mountain Where Rain Never Falls

Math with Bad Drawings

The sixth in a series of seven fables/lessons/meditations on probability.

Another day of hiking brought the teacher and the student to an empty hut by a mountain stream. “We will rest here a while, and wash our clothes,” the teacher said.

When they had laid their clean clothes on sunny rocks to dry, the student pointed to the clouds gathering in the valley below. “Looks like rain. Should we be worried?”

“The rains have reached this place only once in the last 100 years,” the teacher said. “What is the probability that they will reach us today?”

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